Across VSK, EuroShop and Mostra Convegno, the below insights outlined the HVAC-R landscape in Q1 CY 2026. The strongest observations are an accelerated refrigerant transition, electrification driven product innovation, deeper controls integration for energy management and ongoing market consolidation that is bringing more solution portfolios across HVAC-R of existing players.

1. Refrigerant transition setting pace in the standard portfolio

The strongest market signals are coming from the acceleration of refrigerant changes and the product launches around climate-friendly alternatives to F-gases, directly linked to climate action and compliance transitions.
At the same time, the exhibition confirmed that the market is not moving through a single refrigerant pathway.  While R744 / CO₂, R717 / NH3 and R290 are clearly accelerating, other compliant refrigerants such as R32, R454B, R454C, R1234ze and R513A remain relevant across DX, rooftop, applied and retrofit solutions under the current EU F-Gas framework.
This creates a broader portfolio logic where suppliers balance natural refrigerants, low-GWP transitional blends and installed-base migration pathways.

Observed on the floor

• R744 / CO₂ scaling in refrigeration, process cooling and direct expansion such as rooftops
• R290 / propane accelerating in chillers and heat pumps
• R454C and lower-GWP blends bridging compliance transitions and retrofit
• R32 in DX and chiller applications / R1234ze and R513A continuing to support the larger applied
• Natural refrigerants are a market qualifier in the meanwhile and commercially positioned

Refrigerant choices now even more than before defining the portfolio pathway decisions across natural, transitional and retrofit-compliant refrigerants. They set increasingly:

• The application for which the product is designed and where it can be deployed
• Safety design and compliance architecture
• The customer economic story over the full lifecycle
• Retrofit feasibility
• Portfolio hedging against technology and regulation risk

2. Product innovation is moving with the transitions

Product innovation is accelerating alongside refrigerant transition, with a strong shift toward solution platforms enabling electrification, energy transition and broader application flexibility.

Observed on the floor

• Packaged units increasingly adding R744 / CO₂
• R290 heat pumps confirm that a large number of suppliers are accelerating presence driven by electrification
• Refrigeration product lines, commercial + industrial, are increasingly integrated into HVAC supplier portfolios
• Full-stack BMS and EMS solutions expanding product portfolios to optimize energy efficiency and support the energy transition
• More traditional DX suppliers promoting chillers and investing in applied business
• Indoor air quality is highly pitched into AHU but smart monitoring of AHUs operation efficiency is becoming part of the value proposition and was directly exposed on multiple booths via interactive tablets
• Plug-and-play replacement concepts simplify hydraulic and installation operations

HVAC-R companies are increasingly investing in cross-segment portfolio extension, tool development to simplify retrofit and replacement and cloud investments to enable system monitoring and integration. BMS companies leverage their positioning by promoting full-stack architecture.

3. Controls and BMS have never been so important

Controls are no longer back-end technical features but increasingly the intelligence value interface that steers performance, saves energy, predicts maintenance and enables revenue streams / future business models.
Suppliers that can offer the full bundle – controls, chillers, AHUs and refrigeration – are leveraging this more than ever and rightly to do so. At the same time, suppliers historically stronger in electrical cabinets and controls are now showcasing bottom-up architecture and investing more heavily in component homologation so that new business models can evolve in energy management.

Observed on the floor

• Remote monitoring driving predictive service opportunities
• Energy dashboards enabling new business models
• Utility optimization through connected assets including HVAC-R, lighting, fire and security and EV charging
• Refrigeration + HVAC convergence across existing sales channels
• Installer simplicity

This confirms that controls, software layers and BMS interoperability are becoming specification drivers and a key enabler of the energy transition.

4. Market consolidation is accelerating ecosystem solution offering

The acquisitions made by DX corporations into applied systems and controls companies acquiring HVAC manufacturers are becoming even more valuable today. Solution portfolios are accelerating and developing competitiveness in vertical segments. With refrigerant pressure reinforcing the need to balance portfolio risk and the energy transition requiring optimized energy distribution, the acquisitions we have seen over the past decades are becoming even more effective.

Controls companies owning key components within the system architecture are increasingly positioned to steer energy effectively across their portfolio. Offering this through clear value propositions to the market and educating technical and sales teams will be critical in the coming years.
At the same time, DX corporations are increasingly adding applied solutions to balance their portfolio and enter vertical markets with capabilities built through previous acquisitions. While this trend started over a decade ago, we now see a clear acceleration.

Refrigeration is also accelerating the evolution of HVAC companies into full HVAC-R players with the refrigerant transition clearly contributing. This creates a strong need to enhance channel effectiveness, combining portfolio extension with more advanced channel strategies such as key account management and end-user spec-in.

Observed on the floor

• Portfolio expansion and cross-category bundling (HVAC, controls and refrigeration) are accelerating, creating integrated solution portfolios across applications
• Expanded portfolios require stronger channel development, leveraging existing channels combined with new go-to-market approaches
• Integrated cloud-enabled solutions are redefining energy services and maintenance across the lifecycle and enabling scalable cross-category business models

Go-to-market and channel activation

As portfolios broaden, channel development is key to effectively materialize targeted growth.

Bassemo supports HVAC-R organizations through:

• Channel ownership and route-to-market development, defining who owns the customer interface, controls the service layer, captures lifecycle data and can scale cross-category business models
• DX to applied and refrigeration channel evolution, helping existing HVAC companies to develop applied and refrigeration technologies in their existing channels and defining new go-to-market approaches to develop cross-category growth
• Spec-in and key account activation, building consultant, contractor and end-user pipeline management and vertical key account action plans that strengthen route-to-market execution
• Affiliate, distributor and partner development structures, enabling multinational commercial strategy rollout consistency while remaining agile to local market needs
• Cross-category GTM toolkits, creating governance models, Sales/Marketing action roadmaps that accelerate market activation

Value positioning and campaign market activation:

Bassemo helps HVAC-R organizations convert technology innovation and transition into market-facing portfolio activation through:

• Value positioning, development of value proposals from refrigerant transition, specific technical features to full BMS solutions bringing energy savings across the entire HVAC-R value chain
• Product launch activation, supporting product launches with marketing asset creation, keynote speaker at events and full ownership of executive presentations
• Portfolio roadmap activation, supporting DX to applied expansion and HVAC to HVAC-R portfolio positioning with refrigeration
• Campaign activation, developing branding themes for product development, events and marketing/sales key initiatives
• Commercial storytelling and messaging, compiling tools that convert value proposals into practical sales, marketing and launch materials into customer-centric sales narratives. We activate value based selling!

Sales management and commercial capability development

Bassemo strengthens sales effectiveness and capabilities of organizations through:

• Commercial action plan and KPI deployment, building sales action plans with performance tracking that execute commercial strategy by bridging marketing and sales initiatives across the HVAC-R segments
• Training programs, training teams on value-based selling and helping sales, product and channel teams convert technology transitions into customer value
• Coaching in sales management, enabling effective use of sales action plans, pipeline management and stronger commercial discipline in the field
• Organizational commercial capability assessments, assessing marketing and sales teams to identify capability gaps and development priorities
• Affiliate and ecosystem capability uplift, development of programs enabling the scaling of capabilities of teams, affiliates and partners structurally fast and consistent across regions